Monday, September 29, 2008

Making a shopping list...........

FCX @ 33.00 **
NAT @ 20.00
FRO @ 29.00
RIMM @ 50.00
AAPL @ 80.00
RIG @ 70.00
SLB @ 57.00
XTO @ 30.00
CLR @20.00
BEXP @ 4.00
HGT @ 19.00

“Buy when there’s blood in the streets.” Baron Rothschild

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Cash'n In

So, the Fed might just bail out whoever is left after all! They are meeting to plan how they can take the bad debts from financial institutions so they will be free and able to move on......at the taxpayers expense of course. I loved watching the press conference and seeing Pelosi and Reid front and center pretending to be the angels of mercy as though it was all their idea. gag.

And I just read that the SEC will most likely ban short selling temporarily! That's a recipe for a HUGE rally!


In light of this new proposition, I'm thinking I might add to my Bank of America position. Seeing that BofA recently acquired Countrywide, the largest mortgage company out there and thus acquired a whole lot of bad mortgage debt. I'm guessing that BofA will benefit greatly from this new proposition bail out. I got in and out a month ago when they reported for the quarter and had a quick 15% jump. I got back in again a few weeks ago when they were trading around $33.00. Depending on how the day starts tomorrow, I might pick up some more if it stays in the $30-31 range. Of course, I'm kicking myself for not picking some up yesterday when it was down to $26. Eh......it's just money.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

RIP

LEHMAN BROTHERS
and
BEAR STEARNS
and
MERRILL LYNCH




Now.......can we move on already? I wanna buy some more stuff on the cheap!

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Want to see how much damage a liquidating Hedge fund can do?

In a matter of 2 weeks? ( **cough** Ospraies Hedge fund and now Lehman Brothers scrounging to raise capital **cough** )Notice not only the massive drops but also the volume of shares being traded compared to "normal".


Check out Freeport McMoRan:

Then Chesapeake Energy:

How about Continental Resources? Taken out back and slaughtered!

And of course, Frontline. My 23% dividend paying darling:

XTO Energy, another one of my holdings, dropped 23 points in less than six weeks. It dropped 8 points in a matter of days with the liquidation of Ospraies Hedge fund whose ownership of XTO contributed to most of its holdings.

So, this tells me a few things.

1. I must have obviously picked some winners if many of my investments are in companies that were also owned by hedge funds.

2. Hedge funds can obliterate a sector in a matter of days.

3. It feels like CHRISTMAS!!!!!

I am SOOOO excited to see my stocks hit this hard. And I love even more that Lehman was forced to liquidate because their loss is my gain.


Today started out feeling like a bad hangover. No one knew for sure what to do after not only yesterdays sell off but the continuous seven day slam on commodities and energy. Slowly, I saw people getting back in these stocks. I completely expected a sell off at the end of the day knowing that in this market, to make money, you have to sell into rallies. And gains of 5-10% in energy and commodities is a HUGE rally. But this time, it was different. I sat at my computer the last hour of trading and watched and waited for the sell off. It didn't happen! Maybe I'm kidding myself. Maybe it will take place tomorrow or the next day. But this has to be good news. Especially when I read that several of these energy companies ( XTO, APC and CHK ) are having some serious insider buying going on. Could it finally be that the hedge funds at Lehman has liquidated what it can and we can get back to a more stable, trade on real fundamentals market? I'm going to give it a try.


Chesapeake is trading at MINUS 16x multiple! That's in sane! Freeport is trading at 8x P/E. To put it in perspective......when Bank of America, one of those financial stocks struggling to stay afloat is trading at a 17x P/E, you know something is just wrong.


I've been stocking up in cash over the last couple of months just waiting for this very moment! I think about now is the time to get back in, slowly, and trade these poor, badly beaten stocks.


And while I'm at it.......my commentary on a couple of other issues I see. First is the "cut" from OPEC. Well, it is actually a forced adherance to the 2.8 million bpd production in oil instead of the 3.3 they have been producing. That should help except for the fact that our inventories have been dropping the last couple of weeks due largely in part to the Gulf being shut down because of Gustav and who knows what Ike will bring? Also, China has yet to lift their polution ban as the next two weeks they are holding the paralympics in Beijing. Give it a couple of more weeks, and we will probably see some more movement in China.


Also, gold has tanked and the dollar has risen.......FAST! If history repeats itself, as with oil, huge swings in either direction are cause for a swift correction. The dollar needs to slow down and I think it will when the reality of the government take over of Fannie and Freddie finally kicks in. A simple and win-win way to do so would be for the Fed to cut interest rates soon. You can't prop up a dollar when you're printing it like it's going out of style.