The Stock Stalker

Citigroup

2010-04-19T18:38:00.001-07:00

Took a gamble and put in a buy order for Citigroup last week at 5.00 when it was trading around 5.40. I did my research. Checked reports, call/put options, potential good earnings report scheduled for today etc and figured 5.00 was probably pretty safe. It pulled back enough last week to execute only to be slammed the next day thanks to the completely coincidental SEC charges filed against Goldman Sachs. Naturally.

So, I doubled down and bought some more at 4.60 with a tight stop.

It luckily stablized around that price on Friday. They did in fact report earnings of 4 billion dollars for the quarter....best in 2 years which shot the stock up over 7%. I'm hoping it will move over $5 tomorrow and will continue to move up throughout the year. I bought it for a short term play only figuring I could make more if I played smart than just letting the money sit in cash and earn 2% interest.

Buy orders

2010-03-18T13:34:00.000-07:00

Looks like a couple of my limit buy orders executed today. Market has been dragging this week. No doubt on fears of the healthcare scam mess.

Bought some more SLB and HGT as well as purchased more shares of my USAGX. All of them have seen recent 10% + declines. Let's hope they only go up from here..........

Gold and BEXP

2010-01-06T11:31:00.000-08:00

Been a while, eh?

Yeah, I've been busy these last 6 months trying to get my country back from grubby socialists.

Which is why I built up my gold positions last year. Bottom line......money printing equals inflation. Period.

Going with my last entry, I've held on to my BEXP and have enjoyed seeing it go from 1.20/share to over 15.00 in about 9 months.

XTO Energy got a nice 20% bump in mid December after announcing that XOM was buying them out. Exxon is trying to get in to the natural gas market. XTO is the company that purchased Headington Oil who has wells in the Bakkens. My parents received mineral rights checks every month from Headington but are now getting them from XTO. I guess they will now be sent by Exxon.

I'm not sure how 2010 will play out yet with so many unknowns about what the government is going to do as far as legislation and regulations. I'm cautiously a buyer of a few stocks but mostly building up cash in anticipation of a big pull back and a lower entry point.

BEXP Brigham Exploration

2009-07-16T12:47:00.001-07:00

I knew if I stuck with this stock long enough, it would pay off. This week, more oil deposits were discovered in the Three Forks area in North Dakota. This is especially encouraging for companies like my XTO and CHK but even more for my BEXP. They have determined they can drill about 2000 bpdoe and is the strongest Three Forks Well to date.

This discovery prompted a quick upgrade by Keybanc and Raymond James to "strong buy" along with a quick 30% increase in stock price in 2 days.

Here's some basic math:
with oil @ $55.00
new well @ 2000 bpdoe
2000 bpd @ 55 $110,000
365 @ $110,000 = 40 million

Of course, you also have to figure in depreciation of the well along with royalties to those who own the mineral rights ( and of course, what the "greenies" in Washington decide to do ) but still...........

I also think natural gas prices are starting to bottom out which will help BEXP as well.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D99EAOH01&show_article=1

Goldman Sachs and the economic mess

2009-06-25T18:35:00.001-07:00

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/goldman-sachs-engineering-every-major.html

Very interesting read. No wonder most of Obama's appointees come from Goldman Sachs. A little pay back goes a long way.

Gold, Energy and Mickey D's

2009-05-28T22:45:00.000-07:00

Energy has been HOT for the last few months. Wasn't oil at $30 a barrel just a few months ago? It's now in the low $60s. Which explains the nice gains in my energy stocks especially BEXP, APC and SLB. I've also enjoyed watching NAT climb its way back to the mid $30's while paying me a nice 10% dividend to wait it out. The dividends it has paid has more than made up for my initial capital loss. I've also noticed more buying of HGT which pays out a divided every month. They are a royalty trust for XTO ( which is also doing well ) so the interest buying going on makes me think people are getting a little more confident in the sector and anticipating higher dividends from HGT soon.

AUY has done great since my last purchase when it dipped to $7.50/share. Gold has gone up nicely and I expect it to go up even more from here. I'm also contributing to my metals fund USAGX on days gold is down. My husband bought a 50g Suisse bar on his trip to Dubai. I'm thinking physical gold is a pretty good thing to have on hand too.

Then there's MCD. They got a nice upgrade last week with a new target price of $65/share. This is another stock I've held on to and enjoyed the $2.00/share annual dividend payout just to wait it out.

Nice rally from 6500!

2009-04-17T21:02:00.000-07:00

And my AUY ( Yamana Gold ) finally pulled back down far enough to execute my buy order at 7.50. Let's see if it holds.

My big winner this week was GNK ( Genco Shipping ). It rode the coat tails of an upgrade for DRY ( Dry ships ). They report earnings on the 30th and I think GNK might have legs enough for a little more upside then I'll take some off the table with a tight stop and let the rest ride.

Every once in a while

2009-03-18T10:26:00.000-07:00

I get a call right.

I put in a buy order to purchase BEXP at 1.20 which executed on 3/12.

Today, it's up 38%!

I love it when a trade comes together.

Of course, my buy order for CHK at 16.00 missed being executed by 0.13. As well as my AUY at 7.50 which missed by 0.05. Could have been an easy 10% profit trade.

ETA: Nice 2 day double! Kicking myself about CHK and AUY. Ugh.

The Formula That Killed Wall Street

2009-03-11T14:50:00.000-07:00

Interesting read courtesy of Kirk's global economics class:

http://www.wired.com/print/techbiz/it/magazine/17-03/wp_quant

Back from the dead?

2009-03-10T09:14:00.000-07:00

Could they really be bringing back the uptick rule!?!?!?

Be still my trading-loving heart!

Of course, the announcement came from Barney Fwanks office. So, take it for what a hypocrite's worth.

I have some shopping to do........

I heart NAT

2009-03-04T08:14:00.000-08:00

Gotta love a great CEO coming out and reassuring shareholders the 12-14% dividend is safe. Seems the 13.5% jump in price today (plus another 2% in after hours trading ) shows the shareholders like it!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Nordic-American-Tanker-iw-14537584.html

Herbjorn rocks! And so does this stock!

Don't be so smug Gibbs

2009-03-03T21:28:00.000-08:00

Seems he took shots today at Jim Cramer for pointing out that Obama's policies and agendas are destroying the market's confidence and contributing to wealth destruction.

He actually giggled.

Wipe that smug look off your face Mr. Gibbs. It really isn't funny. There are more people who DO care about their future investments and pensions than you and your delusional elitists care to admit. Are you really THAT out of touch with reality? Does NO ONE in Washington have a 401k, pension or investments? I know DC is immune from paying taxes unlike us commonfolk.....

I must admit, I do enjoy watching liberal media members of CNBC clue in and take note of the decline. I took note too.....

FACT 1:
Oct 9, '07 DOW 14164
Nov 4, '08 DOW 9625

EQUALS LOSS OF 32% in 13 months

FACT 2:
Nov 4, '08 DOW 9625 Election day
Mar 3, '09 DOW 6726

EQUALS LOSS OF 30% in 4 months

FACT 3:
When it became apparent that Obama would win the election:
Sep 3, '08 DOW 11500
Nov 4, '08 DOW 9625 Election day

EQUALS LOSS OF 15% in 2 months

FACT 4:
Nov 4, '08 DOW 9625 Election day
Nov 5, '08 DOW 9139
Nov 6, '08 DOW 8695

EQUALS LOSS OF 10% in 2 days

That "small audience" you referred to are people who are paying VERY close attention to their own personal wealth destruction.

I'd laugh and say "I told you so" to those who voted this socialist *$%# into office, but it's not really that funny.

Speaking of stocks....

2009-02-26T11:48:00.000-08:00

I thought I'd mention a few I own that have held up fairly well over the last six months or so.

1. Nordic American Tanker NAT. It has traded in a $25 - $33 range while still paying out a nice 3.50/share (12%) dividend. If it drops down closer to $25, I might load up some more.

2. McDonalds MCD. It has also done pretty well staying in a $53 - $60 range and paying a dividend of 2.00/share (3.7%). Its last earnings report was phenominal and stands to do well in a bad economy. Plus, they are still expanding in China.

3. Abbott ABT. Well, except for today after the announcement of our moving towards national healthcare. It has traded in a $55 - $60 range and also pays a nice 1.60/share (2.0%). Today saw a drop of over 5% which is huge for this kind of stock. If I wanted more shares, I'd look to pick some up if it drops below $50 which seems to be the put options price. They just raised their dividend ( how many other companies can say the same? ) 11% and have consistently raised their dividend year over year.

4. The biggest surprise is Visa V. I bought shares the day it IPO'd in March and sold off all but a few back when it was close to its peak. But, the shares I have left are right around what I originally paid. The dividend is nominal but I'll take flat over major loss any day.

5. Linn Energy LINE. I picked up some more when it dropped around $11 back in December and has maintained a trading range of $12 - $15 with a pretty dividend of 2.52/share (18%). They just reported today and outlook appears good for 2009.

6. Freeport McMoran. This poor, beaten down stock went from 125.00 last summer down to 16.80 in December! I actually traded this thing and got in when it was in the 70's then rode it up to 125.00 and sold at 100.00 when it started to come down. I did buy back in when it was around 40.00 and dollar cost averaged as it dropped even further. From its low of 16.80 to now, it has seen a 100% increase. Copper stockpiles are dropping and China has announced new infrastructure stimulus which should draw down those stockpiles even more. Freeport halted a lot of its mining and even decided, smartly so, to suspend its dividend to preserve cash. While this stock has rallied in recent months, if it pulls back a little, I might pick up some more. I think there is a lot of upside still.

My next buy will be some Smith and Wesson SWHC. Both the stock and their product.

Earth to Geithner

2009-02-25T21:04:00.001-08:00

Banks are solely to blame for the damaging loss of confidence in the market?

Because I'm pretty sure the market has already figured in the bank problem at this point. Don't get me wrong, I think banks have a lot of responsibility in this mess, but the fact is, the stock values of the banks are at such levels that they could all go to zero and not have a huge affect on the DOW. Bank of America is $5. Citigroup is $2.50. AMEX is $13 and JP Morgan is a whopping $21. Glad my portfolio doesn't really trade with the DOW since the only DOW stocks I own are MCD and JNJ.

Could the fact that every time his boss has opened his mouth for the last two months using his peppy words of doom and gloom corresponding with a precipitous 2500 drop in the DOW be the real cause for the damaging loss of confidence in the market? Take today for example. Yes, the DOW was down 180 in early trading but managed to crawl its way back to +80 heading in to the last half hour. Obama then had a news conference about who knows what new spending bill he was planning to pass, but the fact of the matter is, as he spoke, the DOW ticker in the bottom corner of the screen dropped like a rock to end down 80 points. Just like that. Gone. Thanks.

Maybe the loss of confidence is related to the fact that NO ONE HAS A PLAN! They can sure spend like there's no tomorrow. Obama has kept Geithner in a closet since his disappointing debut a month ago and he has the nerve to "come out" just to try and convince us that everyone else, except our ever increasing big government, is to blame for damaging loss of confidence?

Maybe it's when I read articles like this one that makes my blood boil: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29389477

Let me state my feelings in the words of Geithner: I am "deeply offended by the quality of judgments we've seen in the leadership of our nation....."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29394378

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Wednesday scolded bankers for creating a damaging loss of confidence, but said nationalizing banks was the wrong strategy for the United States.

In an interview with Public Broadcasting Service's "Newshour" program, Geithner said he was "deeply offended by the quality of judgments we've seen in the leadership of our nation's financial institutions."

"They've created a deep hole of public distrust and anger which is enormously damaging, and they have a huge obligation to try to restore that basic trust and confidence. And we're going to make sure they do it by making sure that our assistance comes with conditions," he said.

LOL!

2009-02-24T13:17:00.000-08:00

As if the market is struggling enough as it is....

2009-02-22T18:16:00.001-08:00

Imagine a piece of garbage legislation introduced in the Ways and Means Committee this week ACTUALLY makes it through Congress........

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c111:H.R.1068.IH:

HR 1068 IH
111th CONGRESS
1st Session
H. R. 1068
To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to impose a tax on certain securities transactions to the extent required to recoup the net cost of the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
February 13, 2009
Mr. DEFAZIO (for himself, Mr. WELCH, Ms. SUTTON, Mr. CAPUANO, Mr. WU, Mr. STARK, Ms. DELAURO, and Ms. EDWARDS of Maryland) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Ways and Means
A BILL
To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to impose a tax on certain securities transactions to the extent required to recoup the net cost of the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,
SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.
This Act may be cited as the `Let Wall Street Pay for Wall Street's Bailout Act of 2009'.
SEC. 2. FINDINGS.
Congress finds the following:
(1) The Bush Administration allocated the first $350 billion of TARP funds in a manner that has outraged the Nation by failing to provide the most basic oversight of the funds.
(2) Congress has declined to block the remaining $350 billion of TARP funds despite the lack of oversight and the record fiscal year 2009 budget deficit estimated at $1.2 trillion.
(3) The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has committed more than a trillion dollars to stabilize the economy by bailing out various banks deemed `too big to fail'.
(4) The $700 billion TARP fund and the new Federal Reserve lending facilities were created to protect Wall Street investors; therefore, the same Wall Street investors should pay for this infusion of taxpayer money.
(5) The easiest method to raise the money from Wall Street is a securities transfer tax, a tax that has a negligible impact on the average investor.
(6) This transfer tax would be on the sale and purchase of financial instruments such as stock, options, and futures. A quarter percent (0.25 percent) tax on financial transactions could raise approximately $150 billion a year.
(7) The United States had a transfer tax from 1914 to 1966. The Revenue Act of 1914 (Act of Oct. 22, 1914 (ch. 331, 38 Stat. 745)) levied a 0.2 percent tax on all sales or transfers of stock. In 1932, Congress more than doubled the tax to help overcome the budgetary challenges during the Great Depression.
(8) All revenue generated by this transfer tax should be deposited in the general fund of the Treasury of the United States, scaled to meet the net cost of these bailouts, and phase out when the cost of the bailouts are repaid.
SEC. 3. RECOUPMENT OF DEFICIT ARISING FROM FEDERAL BAILOUT.
(a) In General- Chapter 36 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 is amended by inserting after subchapter B the following new subchapter:
`Subchapter C--Tax on Securities Transactions
`Sec. 4475. Tax on securities transactions.
`SEC. 4475. TAX ON SECURITIES TRANSACTIONS.
`(a) Imposition of Tax- There is hereby imposed a tax on each covered securities transaction an amount equal to the applicable percentage of the value of the security involved in such transaction.
`(b) By Whom Paid- The tax imposed by this section shall be paid by the trading facility on which the transaction occurs.
`(c) Applicable Percentage- For purposes of this section--
`(1) IN GENERAL- The term `applicable percentage' means the lesser of--
`(A) the specified percentage, or
`(B) 0.25 percent.
`(2) SPECIFIED PERCENTAGE-
`(A) IN GENERAL- The term `specified percentage' means, with respect to any taxable year beginning in a calendar year, the percentage that the Secretary estimates would result in the aggregate revenue to the Treasury under this section for such taxable year and all prior taxable years to equal the Secretary's estimate of the net cost (if any) to the Federal Government of--
`(i) carrying out the Troubled Asset Relief Program established under title 1 of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, and
`(ii) the exercise of authority by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System under the third undesignated paragraph of section 13 of the Federal Reserve Act (12 U.S.C. 343).
`(B) DETERMINATION OF PERCENTAGE- Such percentage shall be determined by the Secretary not later than 30 days after the date of the enactment of this section, and redetermined for taxable years beginning in each calendar year thereafter. Such percentage shall take into account the Secretary's most recent estimation of such net cost. Any specified percentage determined under this paragraph which is not a multiple of 1/100th of a percentage point shall be rounded to the nearest 1/100th of a percentage point.
`(d) Covered Securities Transaction- The term `covered securities transaction' means--
`(1) any transaction to which subsection (b), (c), or (d) of section 31 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 applies, and
`(2) any transaction subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
`(e) Administration- The Secretary shall carry out this section in consultation with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.'.
(b) Clerical Amendment- The table of subchapters for chapter 36 of such Code is amended by inserting after the item relating to subchapter B the following new item:
`subchapter c. tax on securities transactions'.
(c) Effective Date- The amendments made by this section shall apply to sales occurring more than 30 days after the date of the enactment of this Act.

Anyone want to place a bet

2009-02-22T13:43:00.000-08:00

that the market will tank this week once Obama opens his mouth again and talks about his plans to raise the taxes on the "wealthy", which will include thousands of small businesses, decrease defense spending and let the Bush tax cuts expire?

Let's look at a few things that will happen when the Bush tax cuts expire:

1. Child credit will drop from $700 per child to $500.

2. Income tax rates will increase about 4% in each bracket.

3. The standard deduction for joint filers will shrink from 200% to 167% (and will now include the 15% bracket) which will basically create a marriage penalty.

4. Estate tax exempt rate will drop from 3.5 million single or 7 million joint to 1 million single and 2 million joint at a taxable rate of 55 - 60%. Unless, of course, you inherit an estate in 2010 which in that case you would owe 0% any any amount.

5. The 10% tax bracket will go away raising the tax burden on the other brackets by about 5% .

6. The 0% tax rate on capital gains for those in the 10 - 15% tax bracket would go away. ( see #3 and #5 )

Where is the incentive to invest anymore? Why does the government feel they deserve over half of a family's inheritance? What risk and capital did they ever make to deserve half? Where is the incentive to work if the government is going to take half? If a person has over 1 or 2 million in assets, what would be the incentive of working to make or invest more knowing they would just be working to give it all back to the government?

What would one suppose would happen when the "wealthy" decide they would rather stop working than work to pay taxes? Oh yeah. There will be less money to pay for all of those new welfare programs. Then what?

What do you think would have happened if the DOW dropped over 2200 points within 2 months of Bush taking office? For some reason, Obama gets a free pass having to explain.

Kill the goose who lays the golden egg.........

I just don't get it. Some presidents are dumber than rocks.

UPDATE: Market saw a nice 250 decline or 3.4% thanks to Obama's no plan plan. What did I tell you?

Interesting.

2009-02-20T12:54:00.000-08:00

I thought the Democrats tried to convince everyone that the Republicans never brought up having any oversight of Fannie and Freddie.

Investment Advice for the Day:

2009-01-29T15:11:00.001-08:00

It's more important now than ever before, to stash as much as you can into ROTH IRAs because in a few short years, let alone when it's time to retire, inflation and taxes are going to be through the ROOF.

If your company offers a ROTH 401k plan.......DO IT! Even if you just put it in bonds or a guaranteed income fund for now. And don't worry about the "tax break" you get putting it in a regular 401k. Trust me......it's not worth saving a couple hundred dollars in taxes now.

Just DO IT!

If you don't have a ROTH 401k option, open a regular ROTH and max it out. Again, let it sit in cash if you want. Or maybe a nice gold fund.

Seriously. No, seriously. You'll thank me 10 or 20 years from now for the free advice...........

My Epiphany

2009-01-27T08:12:00.001-08:00

I feel really lame because it really just all made sense to me, like literally, yesterday. So please, those who already know this plan, don't laugh at me. I'm really am smart.

See, I've been told before about how you can pay off your mortgage using your HELOC in a matter of a few short years. We thought we were smart about 6 years ago when we refied our first home to a 15 year loan. We took out an HELOC about a year later because we had a lot of equity since our principle balance was going down quickly. We did an addition to the home as well as maxed out our HELOC money available to us to purchase our current home. It is now our rental property and a great investment for lowering our income for tax purposes.

But what I just figured out is the deal where people pay their living expenses using their HELOC while putting most of their paycheck toward paying down the principle balance on their mortgage. Now, obviously it wouldn't make as much sense if your interest rate on the HELOC was 8% ( like it was about a year ago ) and your mortgage rate is 5.7% but now that the HELOC rates are hovering around 2.5 - 3%, it makes perfect sense! It's amazing how much you can buy down in a year. I really don't see the rates going up, or at least back up to the 6 - 8% rate it was anytime soon Not until the economy starts showing signs of improvement and the Government has to inflate interest rates again to buy back the money they sunk into the system. So why not take advantage of the low rates for now?

So, I've made a goal to try it. If it goes the way I THINK it should, we should have our rental property's first mortgage paid off in a year without having to sell some stocks which was my previous plan. Paying off an original 30 year mortgage in 10 years is an amazing, freeing feeling!

Brilliant! Wish I had this epiphany a couple of years ago.

Geithner? Really? Give me a break......

2009-01-16T19:44:00.000-08:00

Because he points out my feelings as well, I'll just let the article explain itself...........

The Real Problem with Geithner

By Jonathan Hoenig - Published : January 15, 2009

TIM GEITHNER IS an awful choice for Treasury secretary, but not for the reasons other objectors are suggesting.
Geithner is accused of employing an immigrant with an elapsed work visa. From my perspective, this is a complete nonissue. If Geithner wants to hire an illegal immigrant to mop his floors, nobody's rights are violated. He wants his socks laundered, an immigrant wants a job, and they make a mutually beneficial trade.
Geithner also reportedly failed to pay self employment taxes from 2001 to 2004, a shameful oversight for a man responsible for spending hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars over the past year in various bailout schemes. While he certainly should have been aware of his obligations, given the subjective, contradictory and virtually impenetrable tax code, it's easy to get lost amid a sea of paperwork.
The Tax Foundation estimates over $250 billion is spent in compliance costs, simply figuring out how much we owe each year. Why is it that even college-educated professionals need to spend hundreds of dollars simply figuring out their tax obligation? He has since paid his obligations - with interest.
No, the problem with Geithner is, well, Geithner himself.
The Real Bailout Czar
In an age of bailouts, Geithner is the original Bailout Czar. It was Geithner, after all, who was the instrumental figure in arranging JP Morgan's (JPM) takeover of Bear Stearns, a deal in which $29 billion of taxpayer money was pledged as a backstop against illiquid and toxic assets.
It wasn't Hank Paulson, but rather Tim Geithner who put together the plan to have the government rescue AIG, to the tune of $85 billion and growing.
It has been widely noted Geithner was in favor of stepping in with taxpayer dollars to save Lehman Brothers. I guess it's pretty easy to spend taxpayer dollars when you aren't even paying your own taxes.
If you are unfamiliar with Geithner, simply go the Federal Reserve's web site to see a line-item balance sheet of his work: billions of tax dollars for AIG, Bear Stearns (look for "Maiden Lane LLC"; it's the corporation created for Bear Stearns's liquidation), commercial money markets and loans to primary dealers.
What Happened on His Watch
Of course, the financial deterioration at most of the large banks now begging for bailouts occurred under Geithner's watch as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. One could argue he missed the credit storm despite being in the catbird seat for more than five years.
He has, according to The Wall Street Journal, been looking for "as much firepower as possible" as Treasury secretary. Take note: That "firepower" is your tax dollars.

There is uniform agreement that the TARP -- along with all the trillions in bailouts and backstops that have gone along with it -- has been a complete disaster, as we predicted it would be from the start.

Now Obama seems poised to rely on the guy who was responsible for getting this bailout train underway.
Wealth is not created because of a bailout, backstop or government stimulus plan. Geithner's history suggests he believes government intervention is key to growing the economy.
It hasn't worked since Bear Stearns. Eight trillion dollars later...why would it work now?

Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC

Non Fiction: A Real Life Story of the Bailout

2008-12-19T14:59:00.000-08:00

One day, a girl called up her mortgage broker when the 30 year interest rates were at record lows of 4.75 percent ( APR of 5.0% ). This girl has a credit score that always has new loan officers amazed as they rarely see scores so high. She is smart with her money and has maintained a good debt to income ratio with her only debt being a mortgage. She also was careful to save and put 20% down on her house when she bought it and responsible enough to get a fixed rate rather than be suckered into an ARM.

But those honorable and responsible qualities became her downfall. Because her home value three years later has dropped 30% ( 10% lower than the 20% intially put down ), she is not able to refinance her fixed rate to a lower interest rate that would save her $400/month.

Now, I ask........exactly WHO is this "TARP" fund supposed to be helping? Because honestly, if someone like the person mentioned above isn't able to refinance, who is? Those who got 3 and 5 year ARMs most likely didn't put ANY money down and are more under water than the person who put 20%. Why are they able to be bailed out/principle reduced and get a lower interest rate? The same group of people who are foreclosing and caused home values to depreciate 30%+? Honestly. How is a lower interest rate going to help this mess? The 10 year treasury could drop to 1% and our non fiction person in our story STILL wouldn't be able to refinance unless they coughed up another 10% and then would still have to pay $100/month of PMI which she has never ever had to pay on previous mortgages.

idiots.

If only it was real money.......

2008-11-18T20:14:00.000-08:00

Not bad for a days work!

$1.042M Total Portfolio Value*Top 0.4% Game Rank*1368th Game Rank Position*36,935 (3.7%)Gain/Loss, Intraday 41,935 (4.2%) Gain/Loss, Weekly*41,935 (4.2%) Gain/Loss, Overall* ( plays were YHOO/RIMM/GOOG/AAPL/IBM )

Have you registered to play yet?

Time to Register!

2008-11-04T07:46:00.000-08:00

for the next CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge!

Trading starts on November 17th so register today at

http://contests.cnbc.com/milliondollar/main.do

Confessions of a trading house wife

2008-10-19T16:08:00.000-07:00

I have a confession to make.

I moved half of my husband's 401k into bonds, treasuries and guaranteed income funds back on September 25th. You know.....back when the DOW was around 11000? It was a Thursday night after the market closed for the day that I put in my order. I remember it very well. I had this sick, nagging feeling in my gut the whole day that something bad.....really bad was about to happen. The funds transfer executed sometime on September 26th which was a good thing since the following Monday saw a drop of over 700 points alone. Followed by days of 300 plus point drops leaving us where we are today. Hovering around a DOW 8800.

I know. I know. Some of you are rolling your eyes and thinking, "Don't you know that you should just leave it alone?" or "So you're the kind of person who was bailing and making the market tank?" ( Which wasn't me since the 26th actually ended UP about 100 points ). I know that we have another 20 plus years to "make it up" but I just wasn't willing to gamble with 10 years of retirement savings. I also wasn't willing to "wait out" the incessant selling off of hedge funds bringing stocks to insanely low levels equal to that of 2003. So, I did it and saved us a loss of at least a 3000 point drop that has occured since then. Over the last few weeks, on the really REALLY big down days ( like over 500 point losses ), I've been slowly putting money back in the market from my treasuries/bonds funds into the really beaten down funds.

My "Mad Money" ( my regular investments like my ROTH and Kirk's Rollover IRA which are made up of mostly individual stocks ) on the other hand, have taken a huge hit. I have a higher risk tolerance level though with those funds I manage. I've sold shares over the last few months as well as funding my ROTH with cash to build up my cash position just for this very moment. The time when stocks are at that level that you just can't help but buy more!

So, I did.

I bought Chesapeake Energy ( CHK ) when it got to 14.00 last week! ( It actually dropped to 12.00 but I still think 14.00 is a steal. ) I later discovered it dropped in half in a matter of a week because the CEO ( Aubrey McClendon ) was forced to sell his shares for whatever he could get for them seeing that he bought them on MARGIN! HELLO!?!?! Margin? Seriously? His loss is my gain! I'm up 40% in a matter of 2 weeks.

I bought some more Hugoton Royalty ( HGT ) that is now paying a nice 23% dividend thanks to the huge drop in stock price. I got in around 19.00 and it is currently up around 21.00.

I also bought some more Freeport McMoRan ( FCX ) when it got down around 33.00. I think it is about that same price.

Let's see how this next week goes............hopefully UP!

Investing terms for 2008:

2008-10-09T21:41:00.000-07:00

NEW STOCK MARKET TERMS
CEO --Chief Embezzlement Officer.
CFO-- Corporate Fraud Officer.
BULL MARKET -- A random market movement
causing an investor to mistake himself for a
financial genius.
BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when
the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry,
and the husband gets no sex.
VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.
P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their
pants as the market keeps crashing.
BROKER -- What my broker has made me.
STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.
STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.
STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split
your assets equally between themselves.
FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy whose phone has been
disconnected.
MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.
CASH FLOW-- The movement your money makes as it
disappears down the toilet.
YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker
for $240 per share.
WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker
who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's
now locked up in a nuthouse.
PROFIT -- An archaic word no longer in use.

Making a shopping list...........

2008-09-29T23:02:00.000-07:00

FCX @ 33.00 **
NAT @ 20.00
FRO @ 29.00
RIMM @ 50.00
AAPL @ 80.00
RIG @ 70.00
SLB @ 57.00
XTO @ 30.00
CLR @20.00
BEXP @ 4.00
HGT @ 19.00

“Buy when there’s blood in the streets.” Baron Rothschild

Cash'n In

2008-09-18T19:37:00.000-07:00

So, the Fed might just bail out whoever is left after all! They are meeting to plan how they can take the bad debts from financial institutions so they will be free and able to move on......at the taxpayers expense of course. I loved watching the press conference and seeing Pelosi and Reid front and center pretending to be the angels of mercy as though it was all their idea. gag.

And I just read that the SEC will most likely ban short selling temporarily! That's a recipe for a HUGE rally!

In light of this new proposition, I'm thinking I might add to my Bank of America position. Seeing that BofA recently acquired Countrywide, the largest mortgage company out there and thus acquired a whole lot of bad mortgage debt. I'm guessing that BofA will benefit greatly from this new proposition bail out. I got in and out a month ago when they reported for the quarter and had a quick 15% jump. I got back in again a few weeks ago when they were trading around $33.00. Depending on how the day starts tomorrow, I might pick up some more if it stays in the $30-31 range. Of course, I'm kicking myself for not picking some up yesterday when it was down to $26. Eh......it's just money.

RIP

2008-09-17T21:48:00.001-07:00

LEHMAN BROTHERS

and

BEAR STEARNS

and

MERRILL LYNCH

Now.......can we move on already? I wanna buy some more stuff on the cheap!

Want to see how much damage a liquidating Hedge fund can do?

2008-09-10T15:57:00.000-07:00

In a matter of 2 weeks? ( **cough** Ospraies Hedge fund and now Lehman Brothers scrounging to raise capital **cough** )Notice not only the massive drops but also the volume of shares being traded compared to "normal".

Check out Freeport McMoRan:

Then Chesapeake Energy:

How about Continental Resources? Taken out back and slaughtered!

And of course, Frontline. My 23% dividend paying darling:

XTO Energy, another one of my holdings, dropped 23 points in less than six weeks. It dropped 8 points in a matter of days with the liquidation of Ospraies Hedge fund whose ownership of XTO contributed to most of its holdings.

So, this tells me a few things.

1. I must have obviously picked some winners if many of my investments are in companies that were also owned by hedge funds.

2. Hedge funds can obliterate a sector in a matter of days.

3. It feels like CHRISTMAS!!!!!

I am SOOOO excited to see my stocks hit this hard. And I love even more that Lehman was forced to liquidate because their loss is my gain.

Today started out feeling like a bad hangover. No one knew for sure what to do after not only yesterdays sell off but the continuous seven day slam on commodities and energy. Slowly, I saw people getting back in these stocks. I completely expected a sell off at the end of the day knowing that in this market, to make money, you have to sell into rallies. And gains of 5-10% in energy and commodities is a HUGE rally. But this time, it was different. I sat at my computer the last hour of trading and watched and waited for the sell off. It didn't happen! Maybe I'm kidding myself. Maybe it will take place tomorrow or the next day. But this has to be good news. Especially when I read that several of these energy companies ( XTO, APC and CHK ) are having some serious insider buying going on. Could it finally be that the hedge funds at Lehman has liquidated what it can and we can get back to a more stable, trade on real fundamentals market? I'm going to give it a try.

Chesapeake is trading at MINUS 16x multiple! That's in sane! Freeport is trading at 8x P/E. To put it in perspective......when Bank of America, one of those financial stocks struggling to stay afloat is trading at a 17x P/E, you know something is just wrong.

I've been stocking up in cash over the last couple of months just waiting for this very moment! I think about now is the time to get back in, slowly, and trade these poor, badly beaten stocks.

And while I'm at it.......my commentary on a couple of other issues I see. First is the "cut" from OPEC. Well, it is actually a forced adherance to the 2.8 million bpd production in oil instead of the 3.3 they have been producing. That should help except for the fact that our inventories have been dropping the last couple of weeks due largely in part to the Gulf being shut down because of Gustav and who knows what Ike will bring? Also, China has yet to lift their polution ban as the next two weeks they are holding the paralympics in Beijing. Give it a couple of more weeks, and we will probably see some more movement in China.

Also, gold has tanked and the dollar has risen.......FAST! If history repeats itself, as with oil, huge swings in either direction are cause for a swift correction. The dollar needs to slow down and I think it will when the reality of the government take over of Fannie and Freddie finally kicks in. A simple and win-win way to do so would be for the Fed to cut interest rates soon. You can't prop up a dollar when you're printing it like it's going out of style.

ECHO! Echo! echo!

2008-08-19T14:56:00.000-07:00

Did I not just say the same thing a week ago specifically point 3 of my previous blog entry?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26289118

I'm still sticking with my energy/gold/healthcare/tech plays for now. USAA has an interesting mutual fund ( USAAX ) with companies like Mastercard, XTO, IBM, Monsanto, Google, Oracle, Apple, RIG and Gilead. It's down 20% from its highs last October and with most of those stocks taking a beating over the last 3 - 6 months, I think it might be a good, diverse bet to wade through the upcoming volatile months ahead.

I love a good sale!

2008-08-11T23:38:00.000-07:00

Holy cow! What a fast, swift ride down in energy and commodities over the last month! Of course, I bought a few stocks at the peak myself and have quickly lost......well.....a LOT in the last 4 weeks after seeing nice gains in others in the sector. I can't beat myself up too much as I did take profits along the way ( investing 101 ) and bought us a trip or 2 to Disneyland and a backyard patio. But still, that kind of decline that fast is hard to stomach.

Have you seen gold plunge 150 points in the last 2 weeks? Crazy!

Here's my theories:
1. Financials were shorted and beaten down so much and energy was the place to be. When we saw oil hit that 150 mark, it seemed to be the turning point where people ( investment hedge funds ) started profit taking and scrambling to cover their options by pulling money out of energy and putting it into financials. I can justify this reason as causing the initial 15 - 20% drop. The additional 15% drop that followed was pure emotion. Those who couldn't take the heat or see past six months from now, bailed.

2. Oil will be back. I've read many articles about China recently regarding their oil usage. Today, I read they had a 7% drop in demand this last month. To someone who might not know better, they might freak out and think that if China was slowing their demand, prices MUST be high. But what they might not realize is that for the last 6 weeks or more, the Chinese government mandated a cut back in driving as well as closed factories to try and "clear the air" before the Olympics. Plus, the price per gallon that they pay is subsidized by the government. They haven't seen the huge run ups in prices like we have seen here. At least not yet. I'm betting that a few weeks after the Olympics are over we'll start to see the "demand" pick up in that region again.

3. Then there's gold. Come on! Do people really think that we are out of this mortgage mess yet let alone curbing inflation any time soon? I don't. I'm still paying twice for my loaf of bread and 50% more for my juice. Do I really think I'll see the old prices ever again? I wish. Northwest Airlines just announced another $70 "fuel surcharge fee" they will begin charging soon. We all know where the "old" fuel surcharge fees from the early 2000's went. No where. We're just barely dealing with people who got 3 year ARMs. Next year will be those who got stuck in the 5 year ARMs and won't be able to refinance because their home is worth 30% less than what they paid. Not to mention that 40% of the homes on the market in my town are in foreclosure. Two homes on my street were abandoned over eight months ago and are just now being auctioned off. Retail companies are posting losses even after the "stimulus checks" yet we see their stocks jump on the news. How does any of this make sense? It doesn't. And I think the rally in the dollar is just an over reaction to Europe talking about a recession and choosing to not raise interest rates. Another reason I think gold will go back up is that the 800 level seems to be the point where mining companies won't be able to make a profit ( because of higher energy and inflation ) and will slow down mining which will bring up demand and prices.

Here's my game plan. I'm buying beaten down stocks. I know. It's HARD to buy low when you don't know how much lower they "could" go. It's scary. But it's SMART! I bought MCD at $50/share in January after they reported their 4th quarter '07 numbers which were good but not good enough and the stock took a 10% beating. Look at where it is now......$66! More recently, look at XTO Energy. I bought a few shares at its peak a month ago. It dropped 20% pretty quickly each day thinking it couldn't possibly go lower. Then it did. So when it finally hit 25% down and was ridiculously oversold, I bought some more. It's still hovering around that low but I have all the faith in the world that it will be back up soon.

The key is spotting a great deal and understanding the difference between a stock going down because it's a bad company or because it reported a less than stellar quarter.

I'm still buying into my USAGX fund as well. Gold isn't going away any time soon. I'm thinking at near its 1 year lows, it's a pretty good deal.

This is an interesting read:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dancy/2008/0516b.html

I can't believe I'm going to say this

2008-07-22T12:30:00.001-07:00

I'm a big, huge skeptic. I especially have a hard time believing something to be true when all of the actions point to an opposite reality. I live by the mantra both in dealings with others as well as in the stock market, "Fool me once.....shame on you. Fool me twice.....shame on me". I tried bottom fishing with financials way back in the spring when Citigroup was trading around $24/share. Luckily I bailed on the idea around $21/share since it swiftly dropped to $15.

So it's hard for me to swallow what I'm about to say.

( choke ) It might be time to get in on some financial stocks ( gasp. choke. gag. )

I can't believe those words fell out of my mouth.

But, I did it. I sucked it up and did it. I bought some Bank of America shares today. They've been up 50% in just last week alone thanks to "better than expected losses and write-downs". But, I got in first thing in the morning as I followed the quarterly reports of Fifth Third and Wachovia. At the end of the day, I was up a quick 16% before selling 30% of my shares before the market closed to take profits. I bought BAC for a couple of reasons. 1. I knew a few big names were reporting today and took the gamble that they would do as well as the other companies that reported last week who saw 10/20/30% gains in a single day. 2. Congress is supposed to pass some kind of bill to help/bail out Fannie/Freddie and the housing market on Thursday.

At this point, though, how much worse could financial stocks get compared to the beating the energy stocks have taken this last month? Companies that I own like Freeport McMoRan and XTO Energy both reported today. Freeport reported a 14% loss partly related to the Phelps Dodge acquisition last year. They have plans to boost production in both their Morenci and Safford Copper mines this year plus increased their dividend to $2.00/share up from $1.75. This is a company that I've owned off and on over the last year or so. Without fail, the stock value will rise until it is time to report for the quarter and then for some reason, it gets slammed. It will trade up 25 points then pull back 20 which makes for an easy "buy low/sell high" stock to follow. I sold half of my position about a month ago in anticipation for today which did exactly what I suspected. Down 6%. Zero logic.

XTO has been a thorn in my side. They report a 33% increase in profit today after boosting their earnings estimates to 20% last month and the company's shares fell 9% which is better than down 11-12% like it was in early trading. It's nuts! This company just bought out a company called Headington Oil Company who has about 350,000 acres of leasehold in the Bakken Shale in Montana and North Dakota. Why is that important to me? Because I know for a fact that there is oil in that area because my parents receive a hefty check every month from the former Headington Oil Company for their mineral rights on that land. If there wasn't oil, they wouldn't be receiving a check which has gone up a LOT in the last year. So, if Headington found oil, XTO now owns it. So why on earth has XTO shares gone down almost 30% in the last month? Who knows. The large drop in natural gas probably. Reporting on a day when the price of oil per barrel dropped $4.00 was just dumb luck. I did buy back some more today since I thought the smack down they've received has been ridiculous. Their earnings growth and potential deserves better than that.

Natural gas plays are typcially cyclical and tend to trend down in July and August. Once hurricane season and winter gets closer, they hopefully should move up.

EDITED: So I bought some BAC last week. I made a nice 16% profit in one day before selling some of my shares. I put a stop limit to sell the rest at a 10% profit because I just don't have the stomach for it just yet. So, in 2 days, I did a pretty good, quick trade. I'm still going to be cautious and have a "wait and see" attitude........

Run to high yields!!!

2008-07-11T15:29:00.000-07:00

With the Dow down 20% since its high last October, people are hard pressed to find some place to hide and ride out the brutal bear market. The usual places people go during a recession aren't working this time around. Places like healthcare and staples for example. Those who flocked to United Health saw a swift drop from a high of 85 down to 37 in six months. Coca Cola is usually recession proof if it weren't for its decline from 65 to 50 in the same six months time.

This recession is different.

So what do you do? Find the high paying dividend stocks preferrably in the energy sector because energy and metals/mining are the only thing working. And there are several to choose from. I'm talking yields of 10% or more. High yields shield you from drops in stock price and gives you more cushion. If you have a stock that has dropped 5% in value from what you bought it for but pays a 12% dividend, you're still ahead 7% which is a lot better than being down 20% like the DOW average for the last nine months.

Here's my picks that pay a nice hefty dividend and that have done well the last few months:

1. Frontline
Frontline is an oil/ore/coal tanker company. I purchased my first set of shares when it was trading around $47. I've added to it over the last couple of months. Frontline pays an awesome dividend of 18%! Some of the shares I purchased are actually down 6% right now but with an 18% cushion, I'm still WAY ahead of the curve.

2. Hugoton Royalty Trust
I mentioned this one in a previous entry. HGT pays around a 12% dividend. The big plus with HGT is that it pays out monthly instead of quarterly. I actually purchased some more shares this week right before the ex-dividend date to get the payout. It basically averages to $15 for every 50 shares you own. It's had a big drop in value this last week when energy stocks got hammered but over all, it's a great yield which pays way better than any savings account! Who WOULDN'T want an extra $30 - $100 per month which is over and above any increase in stock price?

3. Linn Energy
Linn ( LINE ) pays a little over 11% a year for its dividend. It doesn't have huge swings in stock price and trades pretty flat but the guaranteed 11% makes it a pretty safe choice to stash some money and ride out the market.

4. Nordic American Tanker
Nordic is an oil tanker company that pays out almost 13% annually for its yield. Again, not a huge overall mover but a great place to stick some money and make a great dividend.

Over the last few months, I've been buying and selling mostly in these securities. If they hit a high, I sell off some. If they pull back, I use what I sold to buy them back. So far, it's worked well and why mess with a good thing?

Retirement. Where should I put my money?

2008-07-07T18:52:00.000-07:00

If your company offers a 401k, it's a great place to put your pretax money with each paycheck. One reason is because the money is deducted pretax and is out of sight out of mind which is great for people who have trouble saving money. Unfortunately, what you also don't see are the management fees associated with your 401k plan. I looked at my husband's account the other day and noticed that in the last six months, they deducted at least $60 in maintenance fees from one of his funds. Also, the fund options I have to choose from are extremely diversified and has us investing in sectors like financials which I don't want to be in a 3000 mile radius of right now. The maintenance fees we've been charged for the privilege of losing 10% on our account in the last six months is equivalent to eight or nine trades using my own online account which I can have more control over. Needless to say, I've transferred a bulk of the 401k into bonds and a small amount into a heavier weighted energy fund and a tech fund.

So, what I have learned..........

ONLY invest up to the amount that the company will match. For my husband's company that means if we invest at least 6%, his company will match another 3%. I don't care if I can put up to $15,500 this year into the account because all I'd be doing is flushing money down a toilet each month.

What to do with the rest of the money? Sink it into a ROTH IRA. If both you and your spouse have your own accounts you can each invest up to $5000 per year at the current contribution for 2008. That way, you have control over what you want to invest in. You want to invest in McDonalds? Go for it! You want to own a few shares of Research in Motion because you think their new Blackberry is super cool? Do it! If you want to be a little more conservative, you could invest in a mutual fund that is sector specific. You aren't tied down to what funds the company offers. Plus, you get to keep all of the dividends and you only pay a fee if you make a trade! And the best part is that all of the money the ROTH makes is completely tax free when you start to withdraw on it later.

If you're lucky, your company might offer the ROTH 401k plan. This just started a couple of years ago. If you aren't sure, contact your Human Resources department and ask. It's the same principle as a traditional 401k but it is invested after taxes. You can invest in either one or put some in each up the $15,500 limit. Depending on how many deductions you have, you might actually be better off with the ROTH 401k. For us right now, because we have two mortgages and one rental property, we are able to claim a lot in deductions so the amount we'd save by investing in the pretax 401k isn't worth it to us. In 2010 ( assuming Obama doesn't become president and repeals the tax cuts like he claims he will do as soon as he gets into office ), you will be able to transfer a traditional 401k/IRA to a ROTH with no income limits. Currently if you make over 100k you aren't allowed to make the transfer. Also keep in mind you'll have to pay taxes on the money but if you make the transfer in the year 2010, then the IRS will allow you to spread the taxes over two years. ( Editorial comment: So help me.......... Obama better not become president! )

Energy! Energy! Energy!

2008-07-02T20:38:00.001-07:00

Energy is the place to be right now.With the price of oil up over $140 per barrel, there is more pressure to drill and explore areas where we might find oil. One of the most popular areas right now is the Haynesville Shale ( natural gas ) in northern Louisiana. Chesapeake Energy( CHK ) along with Petrohawk ( HK ) hold the most acres. Luckily, I own Chesapeake for myself. I've owned it off and on over the last couple of years. I recently bought back into it on May 30th so in the last month, it has jumped over 30%. Unfortunatly, I DIDN'T buy Petrohawk when I was looking into it a week ago. If I had, I would be up over 25% in just a little over a week. I think I'll wait for a pull back before I get in. That's a huge run in a short period of time.

The other energy play that is hot right now is the Bakken Shale in the Dakotas/Wyoming/Montana area. There are several smallish companies drilling in the area right now. One of those is Continental Resourses ( CLR ). I bought them at the end of April and in one short month, it almost doubled in value. I saw it starting to decline so I sold off all of my shares. I might get back in again but for the last month it has been flat. Another small player is Brigham Exploration ( BEXP ). This is my speculative play. It hasn't done much since I bought it a month ago. I'm hoping they will ride with big news from other companies. Proabaly the biggest player in the Bakken right now is EOG. I contemplated buying them, but they've been trading flat so I decided against it.

Another way to play the energy sector right now is with Hugoton Trust ( HGT ). They are a trust account for XTO. Not only do they pay an awesome 12% annual dividend but they pay out a percentage of the dividend each month around the 15th. So the dividend compounds monthly as opposed to quarterly. Plus, since I bought my initial shares at the end of April, it has seen an increase of 21% which makes the monthly dividend gravy. I bought 220 more shares last week, just in time to get the next dividend payout and it is already up another 3%.

Today, there was a HUGE sell off in all things energy, oil, coal and gas related. Even though the price per barrel was up again almost $3.00, I think people were just looking to keep SOME profits wherever they could find them. These stocks typically have huge swings plus or minus 5% on any given day but today, they were slammed big. But, in a couple of days, there will probably be a great buying opportunity since I don't see these commodities coming down anytime soon.