BEXP Brigham Exploration

I knew if I stuck with this stock long enough, it would pay off. This week, more oil deposits were discovered in the Three Forks area in North Dakota. This is especially encouraging for companies like my XTO and CHK but even more for my BEXP. They have determined they can drill about 2000 bpdoe and is the strongest Three Forks Well to date.

This discovery prompted a quick upgrade by Keybanc and Raymond James to "strong buy" along with a quick 30% increase in stock price in 2 days.


Here's some basic math:
with oil @ $55.00
new well @ 2000 bpdoe
2000 bpd @ 55 $110,000
365 @ $110,000 = 40 million

Of course, you also have to figure in depreciation of the well along with royalties to those who own the mineral rights ( and of course, what the "greenies" in Washington decide to do ) but still...........

I also think natural gas prices are starting to bottom out which will help BEXP as well.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D99EAOH01&show_article=1

Goldman Sachs and the economic mess

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/goldman-sachs-engineering-every-major.html

Very interesting read. No wonder most of Obama's appointees come from Goldman Sachs. A little pay back goes a long way.

Gold, Energy and Mickey D's

Energy has been HOT for the last few months. Wasn't oil at $30 a barrel just a few months ago? It's now in the low $60s. Which explains the nice gains in my energy stocks especially BEXP, APC and SLB. I've also enjoyed watching NAT climb its way back to the mid $30's while paying me a nice 10% dividend to wait it out. The dividends it has paid has more than made up for my initial capital loss. I've also noticed more buying of HGT which pays out a divided every month. They are a royalty trust for XTO ( which is also doing well ) so the interest buying going on makes me think people are getting a little more confident in the sector and anticipating higher dividends from HGT soon.

AUY has done great since my last purchase when it dipped to $7.50/share. Gold has gone up nicely and I expect it to go up even more from here. I'm also contributing to my metals fund USAGX on days gold is down. My husband bought a 50g Suisse bar on his trip to Dubai. I'm thinking physical gold is a pretty good thing to have on hand too.

Then there's MCD. They got a nice upgrade last week with a new target price of $65/share. This is another stock I've held on to and enjoyed the $2.00/share annual dividend payout just to wait it out.

Nice rally from 6500!

And my AUY ( Yamana Gold ) finally pulled back down far enough to execute my buy order at 7.50. Let's see if it holds.



My big winner this week was GNK ( Genco Shipping ). It rode the coat tails of an upgrade for DRY ( Dry ships ). They report earnings on the 30th and I think GNK might have legs enough for a little more upside then I'll take some off the table with a tight stop and let the rest ride.

Every once in a while

I get a call right.

I put in a buy order to purchase BEXP at 1.20 which executed on 3/12.

Today, it's up 38%!

I love it when a trade comes together.

Of course, my buy order for CHK at 16.00 missed being executed by 0.13. As well as my AUY at 7.50 which missed by 0.05. Could have been an easy 10% profit trade.

ETA: Nice 2 day double! Kicking myself about CHK and AUY. Ugh.

The Formula That Killed Wall Street

Interesting read courtesy of Kirk's global economics class:

http://www.wired.com/print/techbiz/it/magazine/17-03/wp_quant

Back from the dead?

Could they really be bringing back the uptick rule!?!?!?


Be still my trading-loving heart!

Of course, the announcement came from Barney Fwanks office. So, take it for what a hypocrite's worth.


I have some shopping to do........

I heart NAT

Gotta love a great CEO coming out and reassuring shareholders the 12-14% dividend is safe. Seems the 13.5% jump in price today (plus another 2% in after hours trading ) shows the shareholders like it!


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Nordic-American-Tanker-iw-14537584.html


Herbjorn rocks! And so does this stock!

Don't be so smug Gibbs

Seems he took shots today at Jim Cramer for pointing out that Obama's policies and agendas are destroying the market's confidence and contributing to wealth destruction.

He actually giggled.



Wipe that smug look off your face Mr. Gibbs. It really isn't funny. There are more people who DO care about their future investments and pensions than you and your delusional elitists care to admit. Are you really THAT out of touch with reality? Does NO ONE in Washington have a 401k, pension or investments? I know DC is immune from paying taxes unlike us commonfolk.....

I must admit, I do enjoy watching liberal media members of CNBC clue in and take note of the decline. I took note too.....


FACT 1:
Oct 9, '07 DOW 14164
Nov 4, '08 DOW 9625

EQUALS LOSS OF 32% in 13 months

FACT 2:
Nov 4, '08 DOW 9625 Election day
Mar 3, '09 DOW 6726

EQUALS LOSS OF 30% in 4 months

FACT 3:
When it became apparent that Obama would win the election:
Sep 3, '08 DOW 11500
Nov 4, '08 DOW 9625 Election day

EQUALS LOSS OF 15% in 2 months

FACT 4:
Nov 4, '08 DOW 9625 Election day
Nov 5, '08 DOW 9139
Nov 6, '08 DOW 8695

EQUALS LOSS OF 10% in 2 days

That "small audience" you referred to are people who are paying VERY close attention to their own personal wealth destruction.

I'd laugh and say "I told you so" to those who voted this socialist *$%# into office, but it's not really that funny.

Speaking of stocks....

I thought I'd mention a few I own that have held up fairly well over the last six months or so.

1. Nordic American Tanker NAT. It has traded in a $25 - $33 range while still paying out a nice 3.50/share (12%) dividend. If it drops down closer to $25, I might load up some more.

2. McDonalds MCD. It has also done pretty well staying in a $53 - $60 range and paying a dividend of 2.00/share (3.7%). Its last earnings report was phenominal and stands to do well in a bad economy. Plus, they are still expanding in China.

3. Abbott ABT. Well, except for today after the announcement of our moving towards national healthcare. It has traded in a $55 - $60 range and also pays a nice 1.60/share (2.0%). Today saw a drop of over 5% which is huge for this kind of stock. If I wanted more shares, I'd look to pick some up if it drops below $50 which seems to be the put options price. They just raised their dividend ( how many other companies can say the same? ) 11% and have consistently raised their dividend year over year.

4. The biggest surprise is Visa V. I bought shares the day it IPO'd in March and sold off all but a few back when it was close to its peak. But, the shares I have left are right around what I originally paid. The dividend is nominal but I'll take flat over major loss any day.

5. Linn Energy LINE. I picked up some more when it dropped around $11 back in December and has maintained a trading range of $12 - $15 with a pretty dividend of 2.52/share (18%). They just reported today and outlook appears good for 2009.

6. Freeport McMoran. This poor, beaten down stock went from 125.00 last summer down to 16.80 in December! I actually traded this thing and got in when it was in the 70's then rode it up to 125.00 and sold at 100.00 when it started to come down. I did buy back in when it was around 40.00 and dollar cost averaged as it dropped even further. From its low of 16.80 to now, it has seen a 100% increase. Copper stockpiles are dropping and China has announced new infrastructure stimulus which should draw down those stockpiles even more. Freeport halted a lot of its mining and even decided, smartly so, to suspend its dividend to preserve cash. While this stock has rallied in recent months, if it pulls back a little, I might pick up some more. I think there is a lot of upside still.

My next buy will be some Smith and Wesson SWHC. Both the stock and their product.

Earth to Geithner

Banks are solely to blame for the damaging loss of confidence in the market?

Because I'm pretty sure the market has already figured in the bank problem at this point. Don't get me wrong, I think banks have a lot of responsibility in this mess, but the fact is, the stock values of the banks are at such levels that they could all go to zero and not have a huge affect on the DOW. Bank of America is $5. Citigroup is $2.50. AMEX is $13 and JP Morgan is a whopping $21. Glad my portfolio doesn't really trade with the DOW since the only DOW stocks I own are MCD and JNJ.

Could the fact that every time his boss has opened his mouth for the last two months using his peppy words of doom and gloom corresponding with a precipitous 2500 drop in the DOW be the real cause for the damaging loss of confidence in the market? Take today for example. Yes, the DOW was down 180 in early trading but managed to crawl its way back to +80 heading in to the last half hour. Obama then had a news conference about who knows what new spending bill he was planning to pass, but the fact of the matter is, as he spoke, the DOW ticker in the bottom corner of the screen dropped like a rock to end down 80 points. Just like that. Gone. Thanks.

Maybe the loss of confidence is related to the fact that NO ONE HAS A PLAN! They can sure spend like there's no tomorrow. Obama has kept Geithner in a closet since his disappointing debut a month ago and he has the nerve to "come out" just to try and convince us that everyone else, except our ever increasing big government, is to blame for damaging loss of confidence?

Maybe it's when I read articles like this one that makes my blood boil: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29389477


Let me state my feelings in the words of Geithner: I am "deeply offended by the quality of judgments we've seen in the leadership of our nation....."



http://www.cnbc.com/id/29394378

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Wednesday scolded bankers for creating a damaging loss of confidence, but said nationalizing banks was the wrong strategy for the United States.


In an interview with Public Broadcasting Service's "Newshour" program, Geithner said he was "deeply offended by the quality of judgments we've seen in the leadership of our nation's financial institutions."

"They've created a deep hole of public distrust and anger which is enormously damaging, and they have a huge obligation to try to restore that basic trust and confidence. And we're going to make sure they do it by making sure that our assistance comes with conditions," he said.

LOL!

As if the market is struggling enough as it is....

Imagine a piece of garbage legislation introduced in the Ways and Means Committee this week ACTUALLY makes it through Congress........

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c111:H.R.1068.IH:


HR 1068 IH
111th CONGRESS
1st Session
H. R. 1068
To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to impose a tax on certain securities transactions to the extent required to recoup the net cost of the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
February 13, 2009
Mr. DEFAZIO (for himself, Mr. WELCH, Ms. SUTTON, Mr. CAPUANO, Mr. WU, Mr. STARK, Ms. DELAURO, and Ms. EDWARDS of Maryland) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Ways and Means
A BILL
To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to impose a tax on certain securities transactions to the extent required to recoup the net cost of the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,
SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.
This Act may be cited as the `Let Wall Street Pay for Wall Street's Bailout Act of 2009'.
SEC. 2. FINDINGS.
Congress finds the following:
(1) The Bush Administration allocated the first $350 billion of TARP funds in a manner that has outraged the Nation by failing to provide the most basic oversight of the funds.
(2) Congress has declined to block the remaining $350 billion of TARP funds despite the lack of oversight and the record fiscal year 2009 budget deficit estimated at $1.2 trillion.
(3) The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has committed more than a trillion dollars to stabilize the economy by bailing out various banks deemed `too big to fail'.
(4) The $700 billion TARP fund and the new Federal Reserve lending facilities were created to protect Wall Street investors; therefore, the same Wall Street investors should pay for this infusion of taxpayer money.
(5) The easiest method to raise the money from Wall Street is a securities transfer tax, a tax that has a negligible impact on the average investor.
(6) This transfer tax would be on the sale and purchase of financial instruments such as stock, options, and futures. A quarter percent (0.25 percent) tax on financial transactions could raise approximately $150 billion a year.
(7) The United States had a transfer tax from 1914 to 1966. The Revenue Act of 1914 (Act of Oct. 22, 1914 (ch. 331, 38 Stat. 745)) levied a 0.2 percent tax on all sales or transfers of stock. In 1932, Congress more than doubled the tax to help overcome the budgetary challenges during the Great Depression.
(8) All revenue generated by this transfer tax should be deposited in the general fund of the Treasury of the United States, scaled to meet the net cost of these bailouts, and phase out when the cost of the bailouts are repaid.
SEC. 3. RECOUPMENT OF DEFICIT ARISING FROM FEDERAL BAILOUT.
(a) In General- Chapter 36 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 is amended by inserting after subchapter B the following new subchapter:
`Subchapter C--Tax on Securities Transactions
`Sec. 4475. Tax on securities transactions.
`SEC. 4475. TAX ON SECURITIES TRANSACTIONS.
`(a) Imposition of Tax- There is hereby imposed a tax on each covered securities transaction an amount equal to the applicable percentage of the value of the security involved in such transaction.
`(b) By Whom Paid- The tax imposed by this section shall be paid by the trading facility on which the transaction occurs.
`(c) Applicable Percentage- For purposes of this section--
`(1) IN GENERAL- The term `applicable percentage' means the lesser of--
`(A) the specified percentage, or
`(B) 0.25 percent.
`(2) SPECIFIED PERCENTAGE-
`(A) IN GENERAL- The term `specified percentage' means, with respect to any taxable year beginning in a calendar year, the percentage that the Secretary estimates would result in the aggregate revenue to the Treasury under this section for such taxable year and all prior taxable years to equal the Secretary's estimate of the net cost (if any) to the Federal Government of--
`(i) carrying out the Troubled Asset Relief Program established under title 1 of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, and
`(ii) the exercise of authority by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System under the third undesignated paragraph of section 13 of the Federal Reserve Act (12 U.S.C. 343).
`(B) DETERMINATION OF PERCENTAGE- Such percentage shall be determined by the Secretary not later than 30 days after the date of the enactment of this section, and redetermined for taxable years beginning in each calendar year thereafter. Such percentage shall take into account the Secretary's most recent estimation of such net cost. Any specified percentage determined under this paragraph which is not a multiple of 1/100th of a percentage point shall be rounded to the nearest 1/100th of a percentage point.
`(d) Covered Securities Transaction- The term `covered securities transaction' means--
`(1) any transaction to which subsection (b), (c), or (d) of section 31 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 applies, and
`(2) any transaction subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
`(e) Administration- The Secretary shall carry out this section in consultation with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.'.
(b) Clerical Amendment- The table of subchapters for chapter 36 of such Code is amended by inserting after the item relating to subchapter B the following new item:
`subchapter c. tax on securities transactions'.
(c) Effective Date- The amendments made by this section shall apply to sales occurring more than 30 days after the date of the enactment of this Act.

Anyone want to place a bet

that the market will tank this week once Obama opens his mouth again and talks about his plans to raise the taxes on the "wealthy", which will include thousands of small businesses, decrease defense spending and let the Bush tax cuts expire?


Let's look at a few things that will happen when the Bush tax cuts expire:

1. Child credit will drop from $700 per child to $500.

2. Income tax rates will increase about 4% in each bracket.

3. The standard deduction for joint filers will shrink from 200% to 167% (and will now include the 15% bracket) which will basically create a marriage penalty.

4. Estate tax exempt rate will drop from 3.5 million single or 7 million joint to 1 million single and 2 million joint at a taxable rate of 55 - 60%. Unless, of course, you inherit an estate in 2010 which in that case you would owe 0% any any amount.

5. The 10% tax bracket will go away raising the tax burden on the other brackets by about 5% .

6. The 0% tax rate on capital gains for those in the 10 - 15% tax bracket would go away. ( see #3 and #5 )

Where is the incentive to invest anymore? Why does the government feel they deserve over half of a family's inheritance? What risk and capital did they ever make to deserve half? Where is the incentive to work if the government is going to take half? If a person has over 1 or 2 million in assets, what would be the incentive of working to make or invest more knowing they would just be working to give it all back to the government?

What would one suppose would happen when the "wealthy" decide they would rather stop working than work to pay taxes? Oh yeah. There will be less money to pay for all of those new welfare programs. Then what?

What do you think would have happened if the DOW dropped over 2200 points within 2 months of Bush taking office? For some reason, Obama gets a free pass having to explain.

Kill the goose who lays the golden egg.........


I just don't get it. Some presidents are dumber than rocks.

UPDATE: Market saw a nice 250 decline or 3.4% thanks to Obama's no plan plan. What did I tell you?

Interesting.

I thought the Democrats tried to convince everyone that the Republicans never brought up having any oversight of Fannie and Freddie.

Investment Advice for the Day:

It's more important now than ever before, to stash as much as you can into ROTH IRAs because in a few short years, let alone when it's time to retire, inflation and taxes are going to be through the ROOF.

If your company offers a ROTH 401k plan.......DO IT! Even if you just put it in bonds or a guaranteed income fund for now. And don't worry about the "tax break" you get putting it in a regular 401k. Trust me......it's not worth saving a couple hundred dollars in taxes now.

Just DO IT!

If you don't have a ROTH 401k option, open a regular ROTH and max it out. Again, let it sit in cash if you want. Or maybe a nice gold fund.

Seriously. No, seriously. You'll thank me 10 or 20 years from now for the free advice...........

My Epiphany

I feel really lame because it really just all made sense to me, like literally, yesterday. So please, those who already know this plan, don't laugh at me. I'm really am smart.

See, I've been told before about how you can pay off your mortgage using your HELOC in a matter of a few short years. We thought we were smart about 6 years ago when we refied our first home to a 15 year loan. We took out an HELOC about a year later because we had a lot of equity since our principle balance was going down quickly. We did an addition to the home as well as maxed out our HELOC money available to us to purchase our current home. It is now our rental property and a great investment for lowering our income for tax purposes.

But what I just figured out is the deal where people pay their living expenses using their HELOC while putting most of their paycheck toward paying down the principle balance on their mortgage. Now, obviously it wouldn't make as much sense if your interest rate on the HELOC was 8% ( like it was about a year ago ) and your mortgage rate is 5.7% but now that the HELOC rates are hovering around 2.5 - 3%, it makes perfect sense! It's amazing how much you can buy down in a year. I really don't see the rates going up, or at least back up to the 6 - 8% rate it was anytime soon Not until the economy starts showing signs of improvement and the Government has to inflate interest rates again to buy back the money they sunk into the system. So why not take advantage of the low rates for now?

So, I've made a goal to try it. If it goes the way I THINK it should, we should have our rental property's first mortgage paid off in a year without having to sell some stocks which was my previous plan. Paying off an original 30 year mortgage in 10 years is an amazing, freeing feeling!

Brilliant! Wish I had this epiphany a couple of years ago.

Geithner? Really? Give me a break......

Because he points out my feelings as well, I'll just let the article explain itself...........


The Real Problem with Geithner

By Jonathan Hoenig - Published: January 15, 2009

TIM GEITHNER IS an awful choice for Treasury secretary, but not for the reasons other objectors are suggesting.
Geithner is accused of employing an immigrant with an elapsed work visa. From my perspective, this is a complete nonissue. If Geithner wants to hire an illegal immigrant to mop his floors, nobody's rights are violated. He wants his socks laundered, an immigrant wants a job, and they make a mutually beneficial trade.
Geithner also reportedly failed to pay self employment taxes from 2001 to 2004, a shameful oversight for a man responsible for spending hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars over the past year in various bailout schemes. While he certainly should have been aware of his obligations, given the subjective, contradictory and virtually impenetrable tax code, it's easy to get lost amid a sea of paperwork.
The Tax Foundation estimates over $250 billion is spent in compliance costs, simply figuring out how much we owe each year. Why is it that even college-educated professionals need to spend hundreds of dollars simply figuring out their tax obligation? He has since paid his obligations - with interest.
No, the problem with Geithner is, well, Geithner himself.
The Real Bailout Czar
In an age of bailouts, Geithner is the original Bailout Czar. It was Geithner, after all, who was the instrumental figure in arranging JP Morgan's (JPM) takeover of Bear Stearns, a deal in which $29 billion of taxpayer money was pledged as a backstop against illiquid and toxic assets.
It wasn't Hank Paulson, but rather Tim Geithner who put together the plan to have the government rescue AIG, to the tune of $85 billion and growing.
It has been widely noted Geithner was in favor of stepping in with taxpayer dollars to save Lehman Brothers. I guess it's pretty easy to spend taxpayer dollars when you aren't even paying your own taxes.
If you are unfamiliar with Geithner, simply go the Federal Reserve's web site to see a line-item balance sheet of his work: billions of tax dollars for AIG, Bear Stearns (look for "Maiden Lane LLC"; it's the corporation created for Bear Stearns's liquidation), commercial money markets and loans to primary dealers.
What Happened on His Watch
Of course, the financial deterioration at most of the large banks now begging for bailouts occurred under Geithner's watch as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. One could argue he missed the credit storm despite being in the catbird seat for more than five years.
He has, according to The Wall Street Journal, been looking for "as much firepower as possible" as Treasury secretary. Take note: That "firepower" is your tax dollars.

There is uniform agreement that the TARP -- along with all the trillions in bailouts and backstops that have gone along with it -- has been a complete disaster, as we predicted it would be from the start.

Now Obama seems poised to rely on the guy who was responsible for getting this bailout train underway.
Wealth is not created because of a bailout, backstop or government stimulus plan. Geithner's history suggests he believes government intervention is key to growing the economy.
It hasn't worked since Bear Stearns. Eight trillion dollars later...why would it work now?

Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC